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Early Signals · Week of 24–30 September 2026

A 15,000-hectare bamboo MoU in Northeast India. No registry lists it yet.

Early Signals follows carbon projects from the day they are announced (MoUs, press releases, forwarded LinkedIn posts) until a registry lists them, then measures the gap between what was announced and what was listed. Registries cannot show you this. This preview is built from our live watch list, which opened on 29 September with one announcement.

1announcement watched
1new this week
0on a registry so far
4registries checked daily
8registry comparables
Watch list and registry records as read 29–30 September 2026.
What Early Signals is

A project is usually announced months before a registry lists it. We record each announcement as a claim (developer, partners, place, hectares, credits, type, source), check it every day against Verra, Gold Standard, Isometric and Equitable Earth, and report three things each week: new announcements, announcements that reached a registry (announced date → registry date, claimed credits against the registry's own estimate) and announcements still unlisted, with how long they have waited.

Announcements are what the developer or press said, recorded as claims. A registry match is confirmed by a person. Candidate matches and the benchmarks below are our inference and are labelled that way.

New this week

Asthalaxmi Innovations × Earthtree: 15,000 hectares of bamboo, "5 million carbon credits".

ANNOUNCED
Asthalaxmi Innovations × Earthtree · bamboo carbon project · 🇮🇳 Northeast India (state not stated)LinkedIn post announcing a formal MoU partnership · seen 29 Sep 2026 (post around 28 Sep; exact date not recorded) · we hold a screenshot, not a link
Websites named: asthalaxmi.com, earthtree.in. An Earthtree Enviro supplies an areca-nut biochar project under validation on Isometric (prj_1K56VP7FE1S0QDSH). We have not verified that it is the same company, and that project is not this MoU.
Registry check

Not on any of the four registries. The nearest listings are someone else's.

In the 29 and 30 September reads, no project on Verra, Gold Standard, Isometric or Equitable Earth scores as a candidate for this MoU (our matcher weighs the developer or partner named as proponent, a bamboo / ARR type, a Northeast Indian state and the listing date). The closest bamboo listings in India belong to other developers and were on their registries before the post:

Registry listingProponentWhereStatusEst. t/yr
VCS 5594 Climate Resilient Bamboo Plantations for Enhancing Rural Livelihoods in IndiaInfinite Environmental SolutionsAssamPipeline listing approved101,846
GS 4893 and GS 4894 Bamboo Plantation to secure livelihood of the indigenous communities in IndiaInfinite Environmental SolutionsIndia (no state)Listed; record created 28 Jan 202558,871 · 52,918
VCS 2959 Reforestation Project in Meghalaya by Shillong BambooShillong BambooMeghalayaWithdrawn100,000

In India the registered proponent is often a consultant, so a listing under another name can still turn out to be this project. That is why a match is confirmed by a person, never by the score.

The gap, before listing

At the rate registered bamboo projects in India estimate, "5 million" is about 16 years of crediting.

There is no registry estimate for this project yet, so we put the claim next to the ones that exist: every Verra listing of bamboo ARR in India that states both an area and an annual estimate, whatever its status. The median is 21.3 tCO2e per hectare per year; four of the eight sit between 19.8 and 22.2.

~319,000tCO2e a year: 15,000 ha at the median rate
~15.7 yearsto reach 5 million at that rate. The listings below run 20 to 100-year crediting periods
~16xwhat the median rate supports if "5 million" were meant as a yearly figure
Verra listing (bamboo ARR, India)StatusArea haEst. t/yrt/ha/yr
VCS 3570 Bamboo plantations by farmers and community in the country MP, Maharashtra, AssamRegistered4,50010,0772.2
VCS 5047 Earth Maa: bamboo, cashew and mango plantations MaharashtraRegistration requested2,27444,95019.8
VCS 2959 Reforestation Project in Meghalaya by Shillong Bamboo MeghalayaWithdrawn5,000100,00020.0
VCS 5594 Climate Resilient Bamboo Plantations AssamPipeline5,000101,84620.4
VCS 4222 SMG: Bamboo Plantations for a better tomorrowUnder validation10,000221,51522.2
VCS 4035 EVI Bamboo Afforestation Project in IndiaRejected59626,29244.1
VCS 4271 Bamboo Afforestation Project in IndiaPipeline48321,32544.2
VCS 4179 Bamboo Plantation Based Grouped Project in India Madhya PradeshInactive474,22189.8
Our arithmetic, not a rating. Estimates are what each proponent entered on Verra from its project documents; areas are as the proponent entered them, which is why we use the median. It shows whether a headline number is in a plausible range, not whether the project will deliver it.
When it reaches a registry

The line you will get, the week it lists.

When a watched announcement appears on a registry and a person has confirmed the match, the issue carries the dates and the gap on the same basis: per year against per year, or a total against the registry estimate over its crediting period.

[Developer × partner] · announced [date] → on [registry] as [status] [date], [n] days
Claimed [volume] ([total / per year]); registry estimate [t/yr] over a [n]-year crediting period = [total] · claim is [x] times the registry figure

Nothing has reached a registry yet. The format is shown without numbers on purpose.

What each issue carries

Four lists, every week.

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